Real Estate Market Update - May | Sarnia Real Estate

Tuesday, Jun 03, 2025

Sarnia-Lambton Real Estate Market Update – May 2025

By Sean Ryan | Blue Coast Realty

It’s that time again — let’s take a look at where the Sarnia-Lambton real estate market stands as we head into June. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on things, here’s a breakdown of what happened through May, what trends we’re seeing, and what it all could mean for your next move.

Market at a Glance

The local market continues to show signs of balance, with steady numbers across most key indicators.

Year-to-date home sales: 597 (compared to 590 by this time in 2024)
Homes sold in May: 156 (149 may last year)
Active residential listings: 516 increase of 21 from may last year
Months of Inventory (MOI): 3.3%

What does that mean?

We're sitting comfortably in a balanced market. MOI between 3 and 6 months typically signals equilibrium between buyers and sellers—though conditions can vary depending on price point.

What Price Ranges Are Seeing the Most Activity?

Here’s how May sales broke down by price bracket:

Price Range	Active Listings	Sales	MOI	% Sold
$0–400K	140	41	3.4	29%
$400K–600K	144	70	2	48% which is 5% increase🔥
$600K–800K	90	28	3.2	31%
$800K–1M	78	12	6.5	15% which is down by 5%
$1M–1.3M	35	5	6.6	15%
$1.3M+	32	2	16	6.2% Which is decrease of 12%

The hottest segment?

That $400K–600K sweet spot is leading the way — nearly half of those listings are selling. But alos a 5% increase to the amount

Where’s it slower?

Homes priced above $800K-1000m are facing a bit more competition, with longer average time on market and fewer sales. And a decrease of 0.5%. The 1.3m plus market saw 12% decrease to the amount of selling

Key Stats to Know

Average list price: $591,000 (virtually unchanged from 2024)
Average sale price: $530,000 (up 25k year over to date)
Days on Market: 38 (just 2 day longer than may 2024)
List-to-sale price ratio: 98% (slightly down from 98.4%)
Total sales volume: $85.1 million (up slightly from $80.6 million)

So, what’s the big picture here?

We’re seeing stability. The numbers don’t point to a boom or a bust — just a steady, balanced market that’s moving at a sustainable pace. Also to note that Blue Coast REalty had a 14% market share last month of the volume, not bad for a 100% local and 100% local Canadian company

A Note on Expired Listings

One thing that stands out this month: 189 expired listings in May — up from just 5 at the same time last year.

This could be a sign that some sellers are pricing too aggressively or holding out for conditions that just aren’t there right now. It’s a reminder that strategy matters more than ever.

What’s Ahead?

Flat Market = Opportunity

We saw about a 5% increase to average sales price from last month

Sellers in the under $600K range are in a great position — strong demand, faster sales.
Move-up buyers in higher price brackets may find more room to negotiate — on price, conditions, or even extras.

Late Spring Surge?

A quieter start to the year (thanks to a snowy winter and economic uncertainty) could lead to a stronger late-spring bounce in listings and activity.

Interest Rates & Policy Watch

Bank of Canada the next interest rate is June 4th - we expect it to be lowered by .25% at most but also would be surprised if it stayed the same its 50/50 right now
Mortgage rates are sitting around 3.75% to 4.25%, depending on the lender and term.

Stable rates = more confidence for buyers heading into the summer season.

Federal Housing Updates:

GST-only on new homes up to $1M could save buyers tens of thousands uo to 50,000 and homes 1m to 1.5 m up to 25,000 — we’re watching to see how this unfolds. Here is a article form toronto start
The proposed government-built housing initiative (think post-war "Tree Streets"-style projects) is still in early stages, with no clear rollout yet.
Canadas housing minster is Gregor Reobertson. He says prices dont need to come down, but need to speed up. Whats your thought? Will link article from Global news with more info

One Last Thought: Summer Photos

If you are thinking you may want to sell at sometime in the next year - lets get your exterior photos done now. Your house looks the best when your grass is green, maybe your pool is open. contact us to get no obligation photos done this summer and we will hold them in case you decide to sell!

🗣 What’s Your Take?

I'd love to hear your thoughts — drop a comment, or reach out directly if you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just want to get a better sense of your home’s value in today’s market.

Sean Ryan
📍 Blue Coast Realty | Sarnia-Lambton
Helping you navigate the market with confidence.