Are We Finally Turning a Corner?
Are we finally turning the corner on the Sarnia–Lambton real estate market — or is this more of the same flat story we saw throughout last year?
In this January 2026 market update, we’re breaking down exactly what happened locally, how it compares to January 2025 and January 2024, and how interest rates and housing announcements are shaping what buyers and sellers can expect right now.
I’m Sean Ryan with the Blue Coast Team, and here’s your January 2026 Sarnia–Lambton real estate market update.
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Big Picture: Sarnia–Lambton Region
Across the Sarnia–Lambton region, there were 81 residential MLS sales in January 2026.
- This is down about 15% from January 2025 (97 sales)
- But up roughly 8% from January 2024 (73 sales)
So while activity cooled compared to last year’s spike, it remains stronger than it was two years ago.
Listings & Inventory
- 214 new residential listings came to market in January
- Down 13% from January 2025
- Slightly higher than January 2024
- 427 active residential listings at month-end
- Down 16% from last year
- Slightly higher than early 2024 levels
This suggests inventory is easing from last year’s peak but remains more balanced than the ultra-tight conditions we saw earlier in the decade.
Months of Inventory
January closed with 5.3 months of inventory, compared to:
- 6.0 months in January 2025
- 5.6 months in January 2024
This places the market firmly in balanced to buyer-leaning territory, particularly in higher price ranges.
Pricing Trends: Modest Softening, Not a Crash
- Average residential sale price: $494,000
- About 5% lower than January 2025
- Roughly 6% lower than January 2024
- Median residential sale price: $430,000
- Down about 4% year-over-year
Rather than dramatic price swings, we’re seeing a gradual step-down from previous cycle highs, not the “crash” often suggested in national headlines.
Days on Market
- Median days on market: 33 days
- Faster than 39 days in January 2025
- Slower than the ultra-competitive 2023 market
Buyers are taking time to evaluate options, but well-priced homes are still moving efficiently.
Board-Level Snapshot
(Sarnia Lambton Real Estate Association)
January 2026 board-wide MLS activity:
- 265 total listings
- 82 total sales
- $41+ million in total sales volume
Compared to:
- January 2025: 97 sales / $47M
- January 2024: 76 sales / $39M
The takeaway? Activity has pulled back from last year’s peak but remains ahead of 2024.
Zooming In: City of Sarnia
Sarnia proper continues to drive a significant share of market activity.
Sales & Listings
- 47 residential sales in January 2026
- Down 23% from January 2025
- Up from January 2024
- 118 new listings, down from 153 last year
- 206 active listings at month-end
Months of Inventory
- 4.4 months, identical to mid-2025
- Below January 2024 levels
This reflects a balanced city market, with neither buyers nor sellers holding overwhelming leverage.
Prices in Sarnia
- Average sale price: $476,000
- Essentially flat year-over-year
- Still about 5% higher than January 2024
- Median sale price: $440,000
- Up approximately 9% from last year
This suggests stronger activity in mid-range price segments, even as overall prices remain stable.
Where Are Homes Selling? (By Price Range)
January sales were dominated by the $400,000–$600,000 range, accounting for nearly two-thirds of all transactions.
- Very limited activity below $300,000
- Steady movement between $600,000–$800,000
- A small but consistent presence above $800,000
Luxury sales remain a visible but niche segment.
Home Styles: What Buyers Are Choosing
- Bungalows: 36 sales | Avg. $516,000
- 1.5-storey homes: 16 sales | Avg. $341,000
- Two-storey homes: 7 sales | Avg. $588,000
- Backsplits & raised ranches: Active and competitive
There is demand across all styles, with bungalows continuing to dominate local preferences.
Detached vs Condos
Detached Homes
- 77 sales in January
- 4.5 months of inventory
- Average price: $478,000
- Median price: $444,000
Detached homes are moving toward a healthier balance, with pricing gently adjusting rather than declining sharply.
Condos
- 3 condo sales
- 6.7 months of inventory
- Median price: $355,000
Condo buyers currently have more negotiating power, with elevated inventory compared to past years.
Housing, Interest Rates & Local News
The president of the Sarnia Lambton Real Estate Association recently described 2025 as a “flat year” for prices — a trend that January 2026 continues.
At the national level, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, noting inflation near its 2% target and modest economic growth projections. This stability has helped restore buyer confidence after years of rapid rate increases.
Locally, the opening of a 40-unit Indigenous affordable housing development on Confederation Street, led by Ontario Aboriginal Housing Services, marks an important step in addressing housing accessibility and long-term supply pressures.
What This Means for Buyers in 2026
- More choice than in recent seller-heavy years
- Slightly lower prices than 2024–2025 peaks
- Stable interest rates allow for better planning
- Time to negotiate and complete due diligence
Well-priced homes still attract competition, particularly in popular neighbourhoods and mid-range price points.
What This Means for Sellers
- Pricing accuracy matters more than ever
- Buyers are comparing options closely
- Strong presentation and marketing are critical
- Well-prepared homes are still selling within ~30 days
Success in 2026 will be about positioning your home as the best value, not chasing last cycle’s peak pricing.
Final Thoughts
January 2026 brought:
- Slightly fewer sales
- Fewer new listings
- Modestly lower prices
But with improving balance, stable interest rates, and meaningful housing projects underway, the Sarnia–Lambton market is shaping up to be steadier and more predictable than the past few years.
If you’d like a breakdown for your specific neighbourhood or want to discuss your buying or selling plans for 2026, feel free to reach out anytime. I’m happy to walk you through the numbers that matter most for your situation.
Welcome home — from the Blue Coast Team.
